Engineering Geology

Engineering Geology

Quantitative and qualitative modeling of the dynamic system of the multi-purpose dam reservoir using Vensim software by probabilistic simulation method

Authors
somayeh zarei doudeji
Rahim Bagheri
hadi jafari
10.22034/JEG.2024.18.2.1019712
Abstract
Due to Iran's weather conditions and lack of water resources, dam construction projects are particularly important for the country's development and progress. Water resources management based on system dynamics is capable of simulating complex water resources systems. This model for the simulation of water resources has various capabilities, such as increasing the speed of model development, the possibility of group development of the model, effective communication of the results, and increasing confidence in the model through user participation. In this research, the model of the dynamic system of the multipurpose dam of Qamshek in Hormozgan province has been simulated using the probabilistic simulation method. The purpose of this modelling is to realize different needs of the dam (domestic, environmental, industrial and agricultural) before its construction and to check the quality conditions of the reservoir. The study of the results of the quantitative modelling was done after calculating the annual and monthly percentage of volumetric and temporal supply of different needs and their source of supply. The results show that the volumetric supply percentage of domestic, environmental, industrial and agricultural needs of the dam is 95.53, 95.02, 94.18 and 93.14% respectively, and the temporal supply percentage of domestic, environmental, industrial and agricultural needs is 95.19, 94.94, 93.67 and 92.91% respectively, which are all within the acceptable range of the Ministry of Energy. Qualitative modelling of the dam was carried out for the most pessimistic case with a discharge electrical conductivity of 3000 and a base discharge of 10000 micromos/cm, on the basis of which the maximum electrical conductivity of the reservoir was calculated to be 11900 micromos/cm. Based on this research, it was found that by modelling based on model evaluation indicators, including percentage of volume supply and percentage of time supply of different needs, it is easy to quantify the effect of exploitation and management policies on the way of determination and allocation. Observed the quality of water resources and made the most optimal decision.
Keywords
quantitative dam modeling
qualitative dam modeling
multipurpose dams
Dynamic System
VENSIM Software
Ahmad, S., &Simonovic, S.P. (2000). System dynamics modeling of reservoir operation for flood management, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 3, 190-198.
Alami, M.T., Farzin, S., Ahmadi, M.H. & Aghabalaei, B. (2013). Dynamic optimization of dam and underground water system for optimal water management (case study: Golak Dam), Journal of Civil Engineering and Environment, 44(1), 1-11. (In Persian)
Alizadeh, a., (2002), Applied hydrology. Mashhad university publications.
Ashofteh, P.S. & Bozorg Haddad, O. (2014). Akbari-Alashti, H., Marino, M.A.. Determination of irrigation allocation policy under climate change by genetic programming. American Society of Civil Engineers, 04014059, 1-12.
Gelian, S., Abrishamchi, A. & Djirishi, M. (2014). Analysis of water resource exploitation policies in the watershed using system dynamics method, Water and Wastewater Scientific-Research Quarterly, 63-70. (In Persian)
Chen, C. H., Liu, W. L. & Liaw, S. L. (2005). Development of a Dynamic Strategy Planning Theory and System for Sustainable River Basin Land Use Management. Science of the total Environment, 346 (1), 17-37.
Faghih, N. (2014). Dynamic Systems: Principles and Identity Determination, Organization for the Study and Compilation of Position. (In Persian)
Fotukian, M.R., Safari, N. & Zarghami, M. (2016). Dynamic modeling of the Yamchi reservoir dam system by applying the optimal cultivation model to develop the exploitation policy, Iran Water Resources Research, 1(3), 1-16. (In Persian)
Ghashghaie, M., Marofi, S. & Marofi, H. (2014). Using system dynamics method to determine the effect of water demand priorities on downstream flow. Water Resource Management, 28, 5055-5072.
Jalali, M. R. & Afshar, A. (2004). Dynamic simulation of electric power generation system. The first annual conference on water resources management in Iran, Technical College of Tehran University, Tehran, November 26-27, Iran. (In Persian)
Keyes, A. M. & Palmer, P.N. (1993). The role of object-oriented simulation models in the drought preparedness studies. Proc., 20thAnnu. Int. Conf., Water Resources Plan. And Manage., ASCE, Seattle, Washington, 479-482.
Kotir, JH., Smith, C., Brown, G., Marshall, N. & Johnstone, R. (2016). A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agriculture development in the Volta river basin, Ghana. Science of the Total Environment, 573, 444-457.
Madani, K. & Marino, M.A. (2009). System dynamics analysis for managing Iran's Zayandeh-Rud river basin. Water Resources Management, 23, 2163-2187.
Mohammadi, H., Akbarpour, A. & Bagheri, A. (2017). Modeling the interaction of water resources and the added value of Birjand Plain, Journal of Modeling in Engineering, 16(55), 279-298. (In Persian)
Nazari, A., Seyed Mousavi, S. M., Visi, S., Maddi, M. R. & Shah Noorian, M. M. (2011). Investigation of methods for calculating the environmental discharge of rivers; A case study of the Pasikhan river located in Gilan province, the third national conference on comprehensive water resources management, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources. 20-21 Shahrivar, Iran. (In Persian)
Sadeghi, N. , Abrishamchi, A. & Jirajshi, M. (2013). Modeling reservoir utilization for flood control using system dynamic analysis method. First National Congress of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology. (In Persian)
Salavitabar, A., Zarghami, M. & Abrishamchi, A. (2015). System dynamics model in urban water management in Tehran, 59, Water and Wastewater Scientific Research Quarterly, 28-12. (In Persian)
Sheikh Khozani, Z., Hosseini, K. & Rahimian, M. (2011). Modeling the exploitation of multi-purpose reservoirs using the system dynamics method. Journal of modeling in engineering, 8(21), 57-65. (In Persian)
Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics. McGraw-Hill, Boston.
Simonovic, S.P. & Fahmy, H. (1999). A new modeling approach for water resources policy analysis. J.Water Resources Research, 35(1), 295-304.
Simonovic, S. P. & Rajasekaram, V. (2004). Integrated analyses of Canada's water resources: A system dynamics approach. Canadian Water Resources Journal, 29(4), 223-250.
Yang, J., Lei, K., Khu, S. & Meng, W. (2015). Assessment of water resources carrying capacity for sustainable development based on a system dynamics model. Water Resource Management, 29, 885-899.
Zarghami, M. & Amir Rahmani, M. (2015). Toward effective water diplomacy by using system dynamics: Case study. The 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Walton, N.R.G., (1989), Electrical Conductivity and Total Dissolved Solids What Is Their Precise Relationship? Desalination, 72, 275-292.