Engineering Geology

Engineering Geology

Numerical investigation of groundwater fluctuations affected by climate changes in Khorramabad River watershed

Authors
Seyed Yahya Mirzaee
Roghayeh Amiri
Manouchehr Chitsazan
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
10.22034/JEG.2023.17.4.1019262
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of climate change on the Khorramabad Central Plain aquifer. The climatic variables of temperature and precipitation were studied and downscale using GCM and LARS-WG models for a 45-year base period (October 1971 to September 2015). Temperature and precipitation values were then projected for a 30-year period (October 2024 to September 2054) under the climate scenarios SSP1.2.6, SSP2.4.5 and SSP5.8.5. The rainfall runoff simulation was carried out in the Khorramabad basin using the IHACRES model. The groundwater flow in the central plain of Khorramabad was calibrated using MODFLOW code for a period of 120 months (October 2010 to September 2020). This model was validated for a period of 36 months (October 2020 to September 2023). According to the results, the values of precipitation in the future period compared to the base period will decrease by 42.6, 47 and 61.9 mm in the scenarios SSP1.2.6, SSP2.4.5 and SSP5.8.5 respectively. The annual mean of minimum and maximum temperatures increases in all three scenarios. After calibration of the IHACRES model, NSE=0.74, RMSE=1.46 and R2=0.64 were obtained. According to the results, the predicted discharge of the Khorramabad River in the future period will increase by 2.38 m3.sec in the SSP1.2.6 scenario and decrease by 0.42 and 0.94 m3.sec in the SSP2.4.5 and SSP5.8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the base period. The average 30-year aquifer balance under the SSP1.2.6, SSP2.4.5 and SSP5.8.5 scenarios was 27494.5, -12335.3 and -41823.3 m3, respectively. The groundwater level of the Khorramabad Central Plain aquifer will decrease in the future period.
Keywords
Central Plain of Khorramabad
Climate Change
CMIP6
IHACRES Model
MODFLOW model
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