زمین شناسی مهندسی

زمین شناسی مهندسی

رتبه‌بندی روابط پیش‌بینی حرکت زمین برای استفاده در تحلیل خطر لرزه‌ای شهر اهواز به روش تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها

نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه یاسوج
2 دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیا بهبهان
چکیده
روابط پیش‌­بینی حرکت زمین سهم مهمی در تغییر‌پذیری نتایج تحلیل خطر دارند. انتخاب روابط پیش‌بینی مناسب برای منطقه می‌تواند به پایداری و دقت نتایج تحلیل خطر زلزله منجر شود. دراین مطالعه، روابط پیش‌بینی مختلف با امکان استفاده برای تحلیل خطر لرزه‌ای شهر اهواز مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار گرفته‌­اند. این روابط بر اساس معیارهای لگاریتم درست‌نمایی، فاصله اقلیدسی و معیار اطلاع انحراف در دوره تناوب‌های مختلف رتبه‌بندی شدند. سپس با توجه به اختلاف نتایج حاصله، از روش تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها برای تصمیم‌گیری نهایی در مورد کارآمدترین روابط استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصله از میان 67 رابطه ممکن، 5 رابطه را به عنوان روابط مناسب جهت انجام تحلیل خطر لرزه‌ای در محدوده شهر اهواز شناسایی نمود. سپس از معیار ویژه کارآیی برای تعیین وزن این روابط استفاده گردید. نتایج این مطالعه می تواند تا حدود زیادی به کاهش عدم‌قطعیت در فرآیند تحلیل خطر لرزه‌ای منطقه مورد مطالعه کمک کند.
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